4 notes tagged with "probability"

Risk Schmisk - Annie Duke

Expected Value: Theoretical net positive or negative of a given event over time. Volatility > Luck: How much variation there is around the…

Tagged with: #literature-notes, #meta-cognition, #psychology, #risk, #probability

Published on a month ago

Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke - Talks at Google

Uncertainty comes from... Hidden Information Chance Our brain tend to make these mistakes... More prone to make false positive errors. We…

Tagged with: #literature-notes, #psychology, #cognitive-bias, #meta-cognition, #probability

Published on a month ago

Thinking in Bets

Beliefs are bets on the future. If we think of our belief/decision as bets, we would be more open to challenge/change it, rather than be…

Tagged with: #permanent-notes, #probability, #meta-cognition, #psychology, #cognitive-bias

Published on a month ago

Bayesian Epistemology

Beliefs should have a defined degree of certainity rather than a binary true/false(like in classical [ Epistemology ]). Laws of Probability…

Tagged with: #literature-notes, #probability, #epistemology, #philosophy

Published on 15 days ago

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