# Risk Schmisk - Annie Duke

Expected Value: Theoretical net positive or negative of a given event over time.

Volatility > Luck: How much variation there is around the expected value

Risk Management: How much should should be invested in an event proportional to the total assets you have to maximize the probability that you get the expected value while minimize the probability of going broke due to the volatility.

Risk Schmisk: The biggest risk is thinking you have winning strategy when you have a losing strategy.

Self-Serving Bias: When we have good outcomes, we attribute it to good decisions. When we have bad outcomes, we attribute it to bad luck. Another form of Fundamental Attribution Error.

Motivated Reasoning: Only pay attention to confirming evidence(Confirmation Bias). Actively work to discredit dis-confirming evidence. Similar to Soildier Mindset